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Kevin Rudd and the ALP extend big lead over Coalition

Discussion in 'General Discussion Forum' started by clontaago, Sep 4, 2007.

  1. clontaago

    clontaago Well-Known Member

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    Drunken night in strip club not a problem
    Poll support for Coalition 'unlikely to recover'
    About a dozen ministers 'would lose their seats'


    Clons ode to Johnny

    Bye bye little Johnny bye bye,
    Took the troops to Iraq and he let them all die
    Told us all that climate change was just a big lie
    In the coming election Jonny will fry, that will be the day when Byso cries.



    LABOR and Kevin Rudd have jumped to an overwhelming lead over the Coalition and John Howard after flagging plans to take over public hospitals and revamp industrial relations.

    The Opposition Leader has not been hurt by his drunken escapade in a New York strip club, with Mr Rudd's satisfaction at near-record levels and his lead over the Prime Minister the biggest in three months.

    The Coalition's support in the polls now appears unlikely to recover before Mr Howard calls the election, probably by the end of the month.

    As Mr Howard prepares to host 20 world leaders at the APEC summit in Sydney, the latest Newspoll survey, conducted exclusively for The Australian last weekend, shows Labor's primary vote soaring to 51 per cent and the Coalition's falling to 37 per cent.

    On the basis of preference flows at the last election, the two-party-preferred vote gives Labor an 18-point lead, 59 per cent to 41 per cent.

    If those figures were reproduced at an election, the Coalition would be reduced to a rump in parliament, with about a dozen ministers losing their seats, including Mr Howard in his Sydney electorate of Bennelong.

    There has been speculation that Mr Howard would use the APEC forum - and his appearance with leaders such as George W. Bush and China's Hu Jintao - as a political boost, calling the election shortly after its conclusion.

    It is possible Mr Howard may now decide to delay an election until early December to see if the polling improves.

    But this would mean campaigning through two Reserve Bank meetings on interest rates, sitting in parliament for at least three weeks and countering a strong public expectation of a November election.

    The more time before an election is called, the greater the risk of panic-stricken Coalition MPs demanding a change of leadership.

    In the latest Newspoll survey, the Coalition's primary vote fell from 39 per cent to 37 per cent and Labor's rose five points from 46 per cent to 51 per cent.

    While the Coalition has been embroiled in a messy debate over the proposed pulp mill in Tasmania's Tamar Valley - and the Environment Minister Malcolm Turnbull lashing out at opponents to the mill - the ALP appears to have benefited from a switch by Greens supporters. The Greens vote is down to just 3 per cent, less than half its level at the 2004 election.

    Labor's return to a two-party-preferred vote of 59 per cent - virtually the same level as May - follows Mr Rudd's announcement of a federal takeover of the state public health system in five years and the softening of Labor's industrial relations policy.

    A six-point jump in Mr Rudd's personal satisfaction to 66 per cent, almost equal to the highest satisfaction rating for an Opposition leader, appears to have wiped out any adverse reaction to the disclosure that he drunkenly visited a strip and sex services club in New York four years ago.

    Dissatisfaction fell from 23 per cent to 19 per cent, giving Mr Rudd his best satisfaction rating since May.

    The Labor leader also stretched his lead over Mr Howard on the question of who would be the better prime minister.

    Mr Rudd's support lifted two points to 48 per cent and Mr Howard's fell from 39 per cent to 37 per cent. There is still a persistently high level of uncommitted voters on that question: 15 per cent.

    In July, Mr Howard caught Mr Rudd as the preferred prime minister after falling to a low in March of 36 per cent,when Mr Rudd reached a high of 47 per cent.

    But since the first week of July, the trend on preferred prime minister has gone back Mr Rudd's way, as he has risen from 43 per cent to 48 per cent while Mr Howard has fallen from 42 per cent to 37 per cent.

    Satisfaction with the way Mr Howard is doing his job was the only rise for the Coalition in the Newspoll survey, with satisfaction going from 43 per cent to 46 per cent and dissatisfaction virtually steady on 44 per cent.

    Yesterday Mr Howard tried to deflect criticism and ill-feeling in Sydney about the hosting of the APEC forum and the security for the various leaders, including Mr Bush, Mr Hu and Russia's Vladimir Putin.

    "The reason that we have the security clampdown in Sydney, the reason why people are being inconvenienced, is because people in the past have practised and in the current environment are threatening violence," Mr Howard said.

    "It's not the fault of the guests in our country, it's not the fault of the American President or the Chinese President or the Russian President, it's not the fault of the NSW Government or the Federal Government; it's the fault of people who threaten violence.

    "It's got nothing to do with the motives and the behaviour of people who are coming here as our guests."

    There has been widespread speculation from Labor and business that Mr Howard would use the APEC forum as a political boost and call the election as soon as he put the last leader on the plane.

    Mr Howard conceded nobody liked delays and the massive security. "But if you have meetings like this, of course you have to have security arrangements, (or else) you end up handing the streets over to people who practise violence," he said.

    The Canadian Prime Minister, Stephen Harper, is addressing parliament next week and another week's sitting is scheduled for the third week of September. Parliament then has a scheduled three-week break until it's due to resume on October 15.

    If Mr Howard decides to have the election in late November or early December, parliament will resume for that two-week October sitting.
     
  2. Matabele

    Matabele Well-Known Member

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    I just hope the little rodent loses his own seat in the process.
     
  3. The Gronk

    The Gronk Well-Known Member

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    Well my mother lives in Bennelong and saw the local blue rinse brigade out campaigning for their hero at the shops on the weekend. She has a pathological hatred for Howard, so she went up and gave them an absolute spray.

    It went along the lines of (in between expletives) him being a liar, a cheat and an embarrassment, and that he was going to be the first prime minister since Stanley Bruce to lose his own seat and that she would take pleasure in seeing it happen.

    The poor old birds didn't know whether they were Arthur or Martha.
     
  4. Guest

    Guest Guest

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    With Dubya in town with hundreds of secret service agents don't be surprised if Rudd gets assasinated this week.

    Might be the only way for Howard to win.
     
  5. Canteen Worker

    Canteen Worker Well-Known Member 2016 Tipping Competitor

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    The polls in Bennelong are not looking good at all for Johnny at the moment. I have never received so much stuff and he has suddenly opened up a second office at Eastwood, in addition to the one last year in Epping. He is also courting the Chinese vote, the one that he flicked when Pauline's disciples all came on board with the Libs/Nats.

    It is going to be very interesting indeed as Ms McKew has quite a following!!!
     

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