Fro

[Matabele]

This is the inside word I'm getting - interesting .....

A Cliffhanger

We never said it would be easy - yesterday and 14 hours of intense
negotiation and still no agreement. The talks resumed this morning and it is
quite clear that Morgan Tsvangirai is holding the line on the demand that
the MDC emerge from these talks with a mandate to form the next government
and to control the State with effect from the 1st of September.

In the final analysis this is a straight fight between Thabo Mbeki and Zanu
PF - the former has to secure an agreement that is acceptable to the MDC and
also to the international community. The MDC has to accept the deal if it is
to secure the approval of the general population and the latter if the
international community is to then agree to fund the stabilisation and
recovery of the Zimbabwe economy.

The position of Zanu PF has always been quite clear - if they accept such a
deal it means two years of working with the MDC in a junior capacity - with
the MDC holding the reins of power and then at the end of the transitional
period facing an election under free and fair conditions with a free press,
no violence or intimidation, an independent election commission and
international observers.

In such an electoral process it is likely that Zanu PF would cease to exist
as a political party - at least in the House of Assembly and perhaps in all
local government Councils. Like the National Party in South Africa at best
they would end up as a minor player. More immediately and of great concern
to all of their leadership and many hundreds of others, they would face a
independent Judicial system and possible prosecution for either human rights
abuse, political violence and murder or corruption.

When viewed like that this always was going to be a power game. After all
that is politics. We will know today what the outcome has been and I remain
convinced that Mr. Mbeki will have to get a deal - he simply cannot go back
to South Africa without agreement and must therefore use his very
considerable power as President of South Africa, to force Zanu PF to accept
its fate.

What happens if he fails? That has always been a possibility - many have
said a probability. Those skeptics have argued that he simply does not have
what it takes to exercise power at this level. That he does not have the
moral authority or the leverage to force compliance. I disagree - he has
always had the power to do so and has chosen not to use it up to now. I
agree with Tony Leon when he said on SA television this morning that this
thing could have been fixed 8 years ago and the long nightmare of the past
decade avoided. But that is easier said than done. Right now its high noon
on Main Street.

If he fails this test then what happens to the rest of us? If I was on the
Zanu side I would not come out of this with any optimism - if anything I
would be tempted to start to pack my bags and leave. If they do not sign
today, Zanu PF is really finished. They have no legitimacy; their
administration will not be accepted by anybody of significance. The SADC and
possibly the AU will ostracize them. Sanctions will be further tightened on
their leadership and the collapse of the economy will continue - eventually
making it nearly impossible to live here.

Millions will flee to other countries - 80 per cent to South Africa where
they will destabilize a fragile social system and security. The local
security forces will disintegrate, eventually threatening the security of
what remains of the regime. Capital will flee the country and little or no
investment will come in to replace it and starvation and hunger will haunt
what remains of the local population.

Most commentators would predict that the regime could not last more than a
few months under such conditions. I am inclined to agree but we could simply
slide into anarchy and chaos with Zimbabwe becoming a pitiful failed State
of the worst kind - unable to feed or care for the majority of the people
and only a small minority remaining at home.

What are the chances of a violent end to the regime - in this country I
think minimal. We do not have any neighbors who might allow bases for an
armed rebellion, we have no arms and even if the armed forces took matters
into their own hands the result would not be recognised or accepted. It
would be futile. Biti was about right when he was asked what MDC would do if
they could not get what they wanted - he replied "we would let them stew in
their own juices".

What if Mbeki does put his foot down and gets a deal? Then I would expect
the leaders to clear the deal with their respective parties and then a final
agreement to be prepared and ready for signing in South Africa at the SADC
summit on Saturday. After that we would have the opening of Parliament on
the following Wednesday followed by the House voting on the legislation to
give effect to the agreement and then the new Government being appointed by
the 1st of September.

If the transitional arrangements are acceptable to the international
community then I would expect things to happen quite fast - by the end of
September the basic outline of things to come would be in place - the
Reserve Bank would have acted to start to stabilize the economic and
monetary system, the emergency programme to get recovery under way would be
in place and people should begin to see real things happening on the ground.

In six months I would expect inflation to be down to single digits and the
economy should start to exhibit real growth for the first time since 1998.
The dollar will strengthen and exports begin to recover. Investment inflows
would be positive - again for the first time in a decade and tourism would
begin. The contrast between these two scenarios is so great that I find it
difficult to believe that Mr. Mbeki can do anything behind those closed
doors in Harare except tell the Zanu delegation that their future is sealed
and they have no option but to sign.

 

[Fro]

If Mugabe and his cronies accept any deal I assume that they will simply up their contributions to foreign banks and skulk out of the country at its handover?

It appears that they won't be held to account for anything they have done?

 

[Matabele]

The deal was to grant Mugabe amnesty.  But that Mbeki soft cock seems to have allowed the negotiations to fall over and Mugabe to hold a gun t the head of the MDC courtesy of a "deal" with a splinter faction.

 

[Matabele]

When Tsvangirai refused to sign the agreement already approved by both
Mugabe and Mutambara two weeks ago, it is sure that the one person who was
not surprised was Mugabe. He knew from the beginning that Tsvangirai would
never agree to the post of Prime Minister with responsibility but no power.
In fact the wily old devil had been negotiating for a long time knowing that
when the final crunch came, Tsvangirai would walk away.

But the plan started to unravel before he had any opportunity to gloat. The
MDC did not just refuse to sign but put in an alternative that in their view
was practical, consistent with the outcome of the March 29th elections and
workable. The second development was that Mr. Mbeki did not automatically
endorse the idea of a unity government between Zanu and the Mutambara
faction of the MDC. Instead he said that the problem would go to the SADC
summit that weekend for arbitration and that he would go on from there.

Even so Mugabe was still confident – he knew how to handle his detractors in
the SADC and was a past master at subterfuge. At the summit Tsvangirai ran
into a situation where he faced not just a recalcitrant Mugabe, but also
Mutambara and Welshman Ncube who made it clear, in both the plenary and the
closed sessions that they were backing Mugabe in this situation. They argued
that we were being unreasonable in not signing the deal as they had already
done and that if Tsvangirai continued to refuse to sign up, they would go
into a unity government with Zanu PF.

Mutambara played the role of “power broker” claiming that he held the
balance of power between Zanu and the MDC and would use that influence to
ensure that a unity government under Mugabe would have a majority in
Parliament. As you can imagine this created severe difficulties for
Tsvangirai and his team as well as for our many friends in the region.

So the SADC summit decided to test the Mugabe/Mutambara hypothesis and get
them to convene Parliament and see who ended up controlling the House of
Assembly. Mbeki called for the formal opening of Parliament and in 10 days
this was put into effect. After a delay of 5 months Parliament was called
and on Monday the new Members of Parliament and the Senate were sworn into
office.

The issue at stake was quite simple – who controlled a majority in the lower
House and therefore the third arm of the State? Behind the scenes activity
was intense. Both Zanu and the MDC Mutambara held caucuses with their
representatives and tried to whip them into line. Threats were made against
those expected to rebel against the Party line and the regime pulled out all
the stops to try and whittle down the MDC majority. They attempted to bribe
MP’s they issued warrants of arrest against others and there were blatant
attempts to threaten and intimidate.

The MDC went to great lengths to protect their legislators – people in
hiding were given security and moved to safe houses, MP’s were ordered to
switch accommodation at the last minute to ensure their safety overnight. On
the day, those MP’s who were under threat (15 of them) were transported to
the Parliament and then smuggled into the building via a back door. Those
using the front door, even with diplomats watching, were arrested – one
escaping and making it into the building and the other two being hauled off
to the Central Police Station. We managed to get one out of police custody
in time for him to be sworn and to vote, but we were one short when we
convened at 10.00 hrs.

After the swearing in, we were asked to elect a Speaker by secret ballot.
The atmosphere was electric – the tensions between the MDC, many of whom
were new, and the Zanu PF benches
were palpable. Zanu PF were supremely confident. I voted and then walked out
of the building with a Zanu PF legislator. He said to me “you know what is
happening in there?” he said pointing back into the House? “You are going to
lose this vote, we have bought many of your people and you cannot win
against a disciplined Zanu
PF!” I grunted in reply “wait and see”.

At 13.30 hrs the place erupted – MDC had won the vote for Speaker by 110
votes to 98. We then went on to elect his deputy and this was also MDC. We
now controlled the lower House and the Parliamentary Committees. Under our
constitution the Speaker is the third most important post in the country.
When the President is incapacitated he acts as the President until a new
President is elected. Zanu PF was completely stunned – it was their first
defeat in the House for 28 years.

The majority of the Mutambara MP’s and 4 Zanu PF legislators voted for our
candidate. The first major defection by Zanu PF legislators since we entered
the fray in 2000. It gave the MDC control of the House and a clear response
to the question raised by the SADC leadership. It also meant that Mutambara
is probably finished politically and that Mugabe’s plan to form a unity
government with him and to then move on without Tsvangirai, controlling a
majority in the House that Zanu PF could gradually increase by eliminating
MDC legislators, in tatters.

Mbeki was not long in responding and called for the talks to resume to deal
with the remaining issues. There is not a great deal to talk about – 98 per
cent of the agreement has been wrapped up and it’s just the central aspect
of the power and authority of the Prime Minister and the issue of the
governors and the special Senate seats (5) that are outstanding. Mugabe must
now face his regional mentors against the background that he has lost an
election, held a run off election that was not recognised by the region and
is in limbo politically. He has also now lost control of the Lower House and
faces grave difficulties in securing support for his legislative programme,
including budgets.

It would appear that the plan for a unity government has more or less
collapsed. Mugabe was holding back two Senate seats and two governor
positions, I suspect as rewards for Mutambara and Ncube. I also hear that
Munangagwa was set to be appointed to the watered down position of PM and
that they would then implement the deal and claim legitimacy from the SADC
process. Instead they are again thrown into the lion’s den with a hungry,
angry lion and no defence.

 

[Fro]

Seems to me that there is a deal of posturing and not much action, in particular from Zims southern neighbour.

The despot is still there although there appear to be positive signs.

If they ever manage to get all the pollies in one spot for a vote and keep them out of jail there wont be much doubt as to the outcome of any voting.

Mata where do the army and so forth sit in all this? after all they are the ones with the things that go bang, and it wont matter what the civvies want if the army is not in step with it.

 

[Matabele]

The army serve Mugabe for as long as they're paid - hence the mega-inflation.  There is the inevitability of a complete economic collapse that will tip the army into the same catastrophic basket as everyone else.

The only way that will be avoided with a serious injection of external capital.  This will not come until Mugabe is effectively removed.

 

[Fro]

that would be the end of the place wouldnt it, the army not getting paid would simply resutlt in a bunch of young hungry blokes fed up, trained and armed.....thats a recipe for complete chaos.

And it is becoming pretty apparent that he is not going anywhere voluntarily.

 

[Matabele]

that would be the end of the place wouldnt it, the army not getting paid would simply resutlt in a bunch of young hungry blokes fed up, trained and armed.....thats a recipe for complete chaos.

And it is becoming pretty apparent that he is not going anywhere voluntarily.

I wish we'd managed to save Colin the whale.

 

[Fro]

Didnt it end up Collete?

i didnt follow it all that closely

 

[Canteen Worker]

Yeah - it was Female but does anyone really care now?

 

[Matabele]

Today the new Zimbabwe currency devalued to one South African cent. Issued
just a month ago at parity with the Rand, it was a desperate move by the
regime in Harare to try and meet the demand for cash in an environment where
the local currency is halving in values every week or less.

Even though we have no less than five sets of currency in circulation – the
new notes, the bearer bonds, the agric cheques and two different sets of
coinage, there is still a huge shortage of local currency. Businesses with
cash are selling their surplus on the market at up to a 50 per cent premium.
Bankers and the Reserve Bank are also selling cash and buying foreign
exchange on the parallel market.

In fact to the uninitiated the situation here can be quite bewildering –
just take today for example. The US dollar was trading at Z$1334 per dollar
at the so-called “Old Mutual Rate”. The “RTGS” rate was about Z$850 to 1.
The street rate was Z$200 to 1. The interbank rate was slightly higher and
the “official rate” was Z$0,0000003 of a local dollar to one US dollar.

Then today we tried to buy some fabric from a local firm – 100 per cent
cotton, locally manufactured and dyed – they quoted me Z$6060 per Metre or
US3,10 – at that rate the exchange rate was 1955 to one US dollar. That is
10 times the street rate.

So if I was able to get an allocation of foreign exchange from the Reserve
Bank at the “Official” rate, US$100 000 would cost me 30 Zimbabwean cents.
If I sold the US$100 000 on the local market at the RTGS rate I would earn
Z$85 million. If I then bought US dollars on the free market in Zimbabwe I
would be able to buy US$425 000. This is what we call “Gononomics”.

But if you were a worker in a clothing factory, your weekly wage would be
about Z$200 – and a 300 mls Coke would cost you Z$1 800 – you would have to
work for 9 weeks to buy a cold coke!

Last month the militias were paid Z$3 trillion – that is 30 cents in the new
currency. Worth a fortune in the hands of Grace Mugabe but not worth a dime
in the markets in which they have to live. They are going to have to print
currency and “create” currency through the Reserve Bank by simply issuing
cheques or even just a credit for an account in order to pay the army – but
the army will not be able to get hard cash and therefore cannot spend the
money they get until it is worthless.

How you function in such a crazy environment I simply do not know.

 

[Matabele]

http://www.smh.com.au/news/opinion/from-breadbasket-to-basket-case/2009/01/08/1231004192749.html